Breaking the Climate Deadlock, the G8's 50 by 50 Plan and Copenhagen

The argument could be made that COP 15 -- the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen at the end of next year -- may well be the most important diplomatic meeting of the century. That's because Copenhagen (as insiders call it) may well be our last, best hope for decisive action on climate change within a timeline that matters.

In the run up to that meeting, then, it's really worth noting the good arguments emerging in support for radical action, and the good thinking about what radical action might look like. Tony Blair's Breaking the Climate Deadlock is a step in the right direction, laying out a mainstream plan for achieving the new G8 goal of a 50% reduction in greenhouse gasses by 2050 (the so-called "50 by 50" plan) without damaging the global economy:

"We are talking of a global 2050 target of at least a 50% cut in emissions. But let’s be clear. This date is decades away and decades beyond the political life of any government.

The key challenge is to describe a realistic pathway to it.

That implies shorter term goals. But these are immensely demanding, asking developed economies to move from growth in emissions to significant cuts within 10-15 years."

The biggest contribution the report makes -- and it's well worth reading if you read these sorts of things -- is that it makes a 50% reduction over four decades look absolutely reasonable, achievable and sensible.

The biggest problem with it is that 50% by 2050 is a laughably inadequate goal. What we instead need to be aiming for is the cessation of net new emissions as soon as possible, with a stabilization target of 350 ppm CO2e.

That's going to take acknowledging that business-as-usual approaches just won't work here. 50 by 50 is radical today: our job is making 60, 70 or 80 by 2020 look practical by the end of next year. We have some work to do.
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(Posted by Alex Steffen in Climate Change at 10:11 AM)